The Evolution and Future of Work
This is a 20’ spot on talk which I delivered in September 2016 to a pretty young and interested crowd aged 20 to 30 at the Beyond the Bond Festival. The talk captures the main theories which made me set up TELOS and can be easily extended to a 2 hours lecture. For BTB I designed 25’ of interactive exercises which can also be part of an organizational training program.
Theory #1: increasing automation and computerization, in particular the recent development in AI research and application will lead within the next two decades to a total collapse of our labor markets, in particular the tertiary sector. In 30 years from now, we will live in societies where most menial and skilled work is executed by robots and algorithms and people are either without job or self-employed.[i]
Theory #2: The ongoing Chinese robot revolution will play a prominent role in this development, because China will be for the first time in the industrial revolution’s history pitcher instead of catcher. The Chinese industrial robot revolution will catalyze and exponentially accelerate the AI revolution.[ii]
Theory #3: a collapse of labor markets can only be resolved by a new redistribution of wealth and the gradual agreement on a new social contract. This new social contract will have a guaranteed basic income as its central pillar.[iii]
Theory #4: assuming that regional, national and global elites agree to cede relevant power and finance a basic income for the sake of peace and progress, humanity will for the first time ever be confronted in its entirety with yet another new challenge, which until recently did only exist for a few wealthy individuals and for which our educational systems do not prepare: defining individual and organizational purpose beyond biological and economic needs.[iv]
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[i] See in particular Martin Ford: The Rise of the Robots – Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
[ii] See in particular NDRC: 机器人产业发展规划(2016-2020年)发布
[iii] Switzerland put the unconditional guaranteed basic income as the planet’s first country to a referendum on June 5, 2016. Detailed information about the socio-economic implications can be found on the website of the organizers.
[iv] Compare ongoing HR development and management discussions about employee motivation, e.g. How Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Influences Employee Engagement
Theory #1: increasing automation and computerization, in particular the recent development in AI research and application will lead within the next two decades to a total collapse of our labor markets, in particular the tertiary sector. In 30 years from now, we will live in societies where most menial and skilled work is executed by robots and algorithms and people are either without job or self-employed.[i]
Theory #2: The ongoing Chinese robot revolution will play a prominent role in this development, because China will be for the first time in the industrial revolution’s history pitcher instead of catcher. The Chinese industrial robot revolution will catalyze and exponentially accelerate the AI revolution.[ii]
Theory #3: a collapse of labor markets can only be resolved by a new redistribution of wealth and the gradual agreement on a new social contract. This new social contract will have a guaranteed basic income as its central pillar.[iii]
Theory #4: assuming that regional, national and global elites agree to cede relevant power and finance a basic income for the sake of peace and progress, humanity will for the first time ever be confronted in its entirety with yet another new challenge, which until recently did only exist for a few wealthy individuals and for which our educational systems do not prepare: defining individual and organizational purpose beyond biological and economic needs.[iv]
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[i] See in particular Martin Ford: The Rise of the Robots – Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
[ii] See in particular NDRC: 机器人产业发展规划(2016-2020年)发布
[iii] Switzerland put the unconditional guaranteed basic income as the planet’s first country to a referendum on June 5, 2016. Detailed information about the socio-economic implications can be found on the website of the organizers.
[iv] Compare ongoing HR development and management discussions about employee motivation, e.g. How Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs Influences Employee Engagement